中国数字经济空间关联网络及其影响因素分析

基于2013年和2020年29个省的数据，用因子模型测算各省数字经济发展水平，在此基础上使用修正引力模型构建数字经济空间关联网络，并深入分析此网络特征。结果表明：中国数字经济发展水平存在差异，东部地区高于中西部地区；中国数字经济空间关联网络密度不断增大；北京、山东、江苏一直是网络的重要输出省份，近年来西部地区在网络中的作用越来越明显；地理位置相邻、贸易开放度和产业结构对网络的形成有显著影响。     

草地确权对牧户草地转入的影响

确权政策的实施稳定了地权，保障了牧户的产权权益。基于内蒙古自治区锡林郭勒盟、鄂尔多斯市和乌兰察布市的调研数据，运用Tobit回归模型得出以下结论：确权对于牧户草地转入具有显著的抑制作用；户主特征中性别、年龄对于土地转入作用不显著，受教育程度具有显著的促进作用；家庭特征中家庭收入、家庭承包草场面积和牲畜存栏量对于草场转入具有显著的促进作用。     

The dark side of innovation: How new SKUs affect brand choice in the presence of consumer uncertainty and learning

New product activity is critical for sustained success of consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands. However, the impact of new SKUs on the perceived quality, quality uncertainty and subsequent choice of the brand as a whole is, as of yet, not well understood. The authors study how new additions to the brand line shape consumers’ quality perceptions, and how this – next to the mere line length effect – influences their choice of brands over time. They do so in the setting of an emerging market (China), where new product activity is particularly pervasive. Using a unique scanner panel dataset of Chinese households over the period 2011–2014, they estimate a Bayesian learning model that accommodates varying quality, on two CPG categories, and for two types of new-product additions (new sensory SKUs vs. new non-sensory SKUs). They show that while adding new SKUs may lift the brand’s perceived quality level, it also makes consumers more uncertain about the quality of the brand – dampening their brand choice. This holds especially for light customers – an important part of the brand clientele. Managerial implications are discussed.     

Forecasting macroeconomic variables in emerging economies

Forecasting macroeconomic variables in rapidly changing emerging economies presents a number of challenges. In addition to structural changes, the time-series data are usually available only for a short number of periods, and predictors are available in different lengths and frequencies. Dynamic model averaging (DMA), by allowing the forecasting model to change dynamically over time, permits the use of predictors with different lengths and frequencies for the purpose of forecasting in a rapidly changing economy. This study uses DMA to forecast inflation and growth in Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Ghana. We compare its forecasting performance with a wide range of other time-series methods. We find that the size and composition of the optimal predictor set changed, indicating changes in the economic relationships over time. We also find that DMA frequently produces more accurate forecasts than other forecasting methods for both inflation and economic growth in the countries studied.     

女性高管对企业研发创新的影响：一个有调节的中介模型

企业创新是企业持续发展的内在动力,也是推动国家产业升级、建设创新型国家的重要举措.近年来女性高管比重不断提高,学术界开始关注女性高管对企业研发创新的影响.以沪深两市2010—2018年A股上市公司为研究样本,实证检验女性高管对企业研发创新投入的影响.结果表明:女性高管负向影响企业研发创新投入;其负向作用以风险承担为中介实现;企业所有制调节了中介过程的后半段路径.     

人力资源柔性研究现状及其在中国商业银行实践新思考

通过理论基础、维度与测量、影响因素、组织绩效影响等4个方面对人力资源柔性研究现状做文献研究述评,并基于此提出研究与实践新方向,提出本土国情下中国商业银行人力资源柔性、创新能力以及创新实践的测量体系,探讨人力资源柔性与创新能力以及创新实践之间的影响关系,充分考虑外部环境对上述关系的影响,提出中国商业银行业务创新实践的概念模型。该模型有助于拓展人力资源柔性理论的实证研究,并基于研究成果深入剖析适合中国商业银行发展的人力资源柔性管理模式。     

基于底线预警的国土空间生态修复规划实施监督体系研究

国土空间生态修复是推进生态文明建设的重大举措，构建基于底线预警的国土空间生态修复规划实施监督体系是完善国土空间规划“一张图”信息系统的重要组成部分和政策支撑。通过对生态修复规划实施监督体系建设的研究，把握底线控制与监测预警机制，对接国土空间生态修复业务管理各项需求，搭建“五梯度四体系”的生态修复规划动态监测实施监督信息系统，构建以“七个一”为主要内容的生态修复规划底线预警监测评估机制，并与各层级国土空间规划“一张图”实施监督信息系统进行衔接，实现对生态修复规划实施的动态监测和预警。     

The income elasticity gap and its implications for economic growth and tourism development: the Balearic vs the Canary Islands

ABSTRACT

The Balearic and the Canary Islands are two well-known tourism-led economies. They both experienced a tourism boom during the same decades, and, hence, they developed a similar productive-mix. Nevertheless, there are strong economic differences between the two regions. While the Balearic Islands enjoy a high GDP per capita, the Canary Islands show a more modest performance. The results of a panel data regression confirm our hypothesis that they differ substantially in terms of income elasticity of tourism. It is two times higher in the Balearic Islands than in the Canaries, which indicates the first is perceived as a more luxurious destination. Furthermore, the results of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model show that the Canaries would converge in GDP per capita with the Balearic Islands if they attracted tourists with a similar profile as the latter.     

基于VAR模型探究BDI和燃油价格的相互影响

燃油价格近期受疫情影响出现剧烈波动,国际干散货航运市场也受到巨大影响。基于Clarksons官方数据库1992年1月至2020年4月相关数据,进行实证研究发现,国际燃油价格的暴跌对波罗的海干散货运价指数的下降有着显著的正向影响;燃油价格虽然也在一定程度上受到BDI的影响,但存在一定的滞后性。这有利于干散货运输公司根据燃油价格波动预测运价指数的变化趋势,从而采取多样的方式应对冲击。也对保障干散货运输市场的稳定发展有重要意义。     

An integrated approach to the purchase decision making process of food-delivery apps: Focusing on the TAM and AIDA models

The study employed two theories, the technology acceptance model (TAM) and the Attention-Interest-Desire-Action (AIDA) model, to provide an understanding of the process of consumers accepting an on-demand food-delivery app, and to establish the effect of marketing communication on outcomes related to consumer behavior. A conceptual model and hypotheses were developed by combining the key constructs of the two models to predict behavioral intentions. Findings revealed the attention and interest in the AIDA model related strongly to the salient behavioral beliefs of TAM, perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use. Thus, it can be concluded that marketing communication acts as an external element in the process of accepting new innovations. Besides, it was confirmed that attitude towards the adoption of new technology acts as a mediator that promotes desire for the app. From the disciplines of information system and marketing communication, the study suggests an innovative approach to incorporating models.